• Global Economic Expansion Expected To Accelerate In 2014; U.S. Economic Growth Should Uptick In Late 2013

 BNY Mellon’s Chief Economist Richard Hoey expects two to three percent transition in U.S. growth rate after Labor Day 2013


The global economy will continue to expand this year, with a faster pace of growth close to 4% likely next year, according to BNY Mellon’s Chief Economist Richard Hoey in his most recent Economic Update. While Hoey thinks economic growth in the middle months of 2013 may be temporarily sluggish due to the final phase of the overall European recession and the impact of U.S. fiscal tightening, Hoey sees faster U.S. economic growth after Labor Day (in US, Monday, September 2nd).

“We expect a ‘Labor Day inflection point’ from the 2% growth rate of recent years to a new cyclical growth rate of 3% or more. This would be an important ‘Two Percent to Three Percent Transition’ in the growth rate of the U.S. economy, however, it is unlikely to occur until late 2013” — Richard Hoey, Chief Economist, BNY Mellon

Image: BNY Mellon

Other report findings include:

  • Global Stimulative Monetary Policy Will Continue – Hoey does not expect global stimulative monetary policy to end soon. As monetary policy is easy worldwide, Hoey sees favorable prospects for growth improvement in China, Europe, Japan and the U.S. over the next year, as well as an improvement in confidence within the emerging countries.
  • Sluggish European Economic Recovery Expected – While Europe remains in a recession, Hoey believes that Europe will expand moderately in 2014 and does not expect a repeat broad financial crisis. However, Hoey states that Europe does not yet have a plausible strategy to improve credit availability in the private sector of peripheral countries.
  • Positive on “Abenomics” in Japan – While the long-term outlook for Japan remains uncertain, Hoey believes that Japan’s new aggressive monetary policies (Abenomics) are likely to contribute to positive economic growth in Japan and positive inflation in the next two years.
view Richard Hoey's complete April 2013 Economic Update
view Richard Hoey’s complete April 2013 Economic Update



BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world’s leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.4 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon’s affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at www.bnymellon.com.

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 36 countries and more than 100 markets. As of December 31, 2012, BNY Mellon had $26.7 trillion in assets under custody and administration, and $1.4 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on www.bnymellon.com, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.


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